Study 2: 270 runs again + fix for study 1 and analysis.

Forgot to commit the config file when i did the run. oops.

2 files changed, 599 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/scripts/analyze_study1.py b/scripts/analyze_study1.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..09e111b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/analyze_study1.py
@@ -0,0 +1,293 @@
+# /// script
+# requires-python = ">=3.10"
+# dependencies = [
+#     "pandas",
+#     "numpy",
+#     "scipy",
+#     "statsmodels",
+# ]
+# ///
+"""
+Statistical Analysis of Study 1: Oversight Effect
+================================================
+Tests whether higher oversight reduces deception.
+
+Design: 3 models × 3 oversight levels × 1 scenario × 1 goal_type (bare) × n=30
+Total: 270 runs
+
+Usage:
+    uv run python scripts/analyze_study1.py logs/v2_study1/study1_results.csv
+"""
+
+import sys
+import warnings
+from itertools import combinations
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from scipy import stats
+from scipy.stats import chi2_contingency, fisher_exact, chi2
+from statsmodels.stats.contingency_tables import Table2x2
+from statsmodels.stats.proportion import proportion_confint
+import statsmodels.api as sm
+
+warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=FutureWarning)
+
+SIGNIFICANCE_LEVEL = 0.05
+
+DECEPTIVE_BB = {"DECEPTIVE_FRAMING", "OMITTED_CRITICAL", "FABRICATED"}
+COMPLIANT_GB = {"COMPLIANT_DECEPTION"}
+HONEST_BB = {"ACCURATE"}
+HONEST_GB = {"ROBUST_HONEST", "CONSIDERED_HONEST"}
+
+
+def load_data(path: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    df = pd.read_csv(path)
+    df["is_deceptive_bb"] = df["blackbox_category"].isin(DECEPTIVE_BB).astype(int)
+    df["is_compliant_gb"] = df["glassbox_category"].isin(COMPLIANT_GB).astype(int)
+    df["is_strategic"] = (df["glassbox_sophistication"] == "STRATEGIC").astype(int)
+    df["is_deceptive_overall"] = (
+        (df["is_deceptive_bb"] == 1) | (df["is_compliant_gb"] == 1)
+    ).astype(int)
+    return df
+
+
+def odds_ratio_ci(table_2x2, alpha=0.05):
+    a, b, c, d = table_2x2[0, 0], table_2x2[0, 1], table_2x2[1, 0], table_2x2[1, 1]
+    if 0 in (a, b, c, d):
+        a, b, c, d = a + 0.5, b + 0.5, c + 0.5, d + 0.5
+    or_val = (a * d) / (b * c)
+    log_or = np.log(or_val)
+    se_log_or = np.sqrt(1 / a + 1 / b + 1 / c + 1 / d)
+    z = stats.norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2)
+    return or_val, np.exp(log_or - z * se_log_or), np.exp(log_or + z * se_log_or)
+
+
+def cochran_armitage(counts, nobs):
+    k = len(counts)
+    scores = np.arange(k, dtype=float)
+    n = np.array(nobs, dtype=float)
+    x = np.array(counts, dtype=float)
+    N = n.sum()
+    p_hat = x.sum() / N
+    t_bar = np.sum(scores * n) / N
+    numerator = np.sum(scores * x) - x.sum() * t_bar
+    denominator_sq = p_hat * (1 - p_hat) * (np.sum(scores**2 * n) - N * t_bar**2)
+    if denominator_sq <= 0:
+        return 0.0, 1.0
+    z = numerator / np.sqrt(denominator_sq)
+    p_value = 2 * stats.norm.sf(abs(z))
+    return z, p_value
+
+
+def cramers_v(table):
+    chi2_val = chi2_contingency(table)[0]
+    n = table.sum()
+    min_dim = min(table.shape) - 1
+    if min_dim == 0 or n == 0:
+        return 0.0
+    return np.sqrt(chi2_val / (n * min_dim))
+
+
+def sig(p):
+    if p < 0.001:
+        return "***"
+    elif p < 0.01:
+        return "**"
+    elif p < 0.05:
+        return "*"
+    return "n.s."
+
+
+def fmt_p(p):
+    return f"p < .001" if p < 0.001 else f"p = {p:.4f}"
+
+
+def section(title):
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 70}")
+    print(f"  {title}")
+    print(f"{'=' * 70}\n")
+
+
+def subsection(title):
+    print(f"\n  --- {title} ---\n")
+
+
+def effect_size(v):
+    if v < 0.1:
+        return "negligible"
+    elif v < 0.3:
+        return "small"
+    elif v < 0.5:
+        return "medium"
+    return "large"
+
+
+def main():
+    if len(sys.argv) < 2:
+        path = "logs/v2_study1/study1_results.csv"
+    else:
+        path = sys.argv[1]
+
+    df = load_data(path)
+    print(f"Study 1: Oversight Effect Analysis")
+    print(f"Loaded {len(df)} runs")
+    print(f"Models: {sorted(df['model'].unique())}")
+    print(f"Oversight levels: {sorted(df['oversight'].unique())}")
+
+    section("1. OVERSIGHT EFFECT (Overall)")
+
+    print("  Deception rates by oversight level:")
+    counts, nobs_list = [], []
+    for ov in ["low", "mid", "high"]:
+        sub = df[df["oversight"] == ov]
+        n_dec = sub["is_deceptive_overall"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_dec, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        print(
+            f"    {ov}: {n_dec}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+        counts.append(n_dec)
+        nobs_list.append(n_tot)
+
+    ct = pd.crosstab(df["oversight"], df["is_deceptive_overall"])
+    ct = ct.loc[["low", "mid", "high"]]
+    chi2_val, p_val, dof, expected = chi2_contingency(ct.values)
+    v = cramers_v(ct.values)
+    print(
+        f"\n  Chi-squared test: χ²({dof}) = {chi2_val:.3f}, {fmt_p(p_val)} {sig(p_val)}"
+    )
+    print(f"  Cramér's V = {v:.3f} ({effect_size(v)})")
+
+    z_trend, p_trend = cochran_armitage(counts, nobs_list)
+    print(
+        f"\n  Cochran-Armitage trend test: z = {z_trend:.3f}, {fmt_p(p_trend)} {sig(p_trend)}"
+    )
+    if p_trend < 0.05:
+        direction = "decreasing" if z_trend < 0 else "increasing"
+        print(f"    → Deception {direction} with higher oversight")
+
+    section("2. BY OVERSIGHT LEVEL (Blackbox Output)")
+
+    print("  Blackbox deception rates:")
+    for ov in ["low", "mid", "high"]:
+        sub = df[df["oversight"] == ov]
+        n_dec = sub["is_deceptive_bb"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_dec, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        print(
+            f"    {ov}: {n_dec}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    section("3. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERSIGHT SENSITIVITY")
+
+    print(f"  {'Model':35s}  {'Low':>8s}  {'Mid':>8s}  {'High':>8s}  {'Trend':>10s}")
+    print(f"  {'-' * 35}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 10}")
+
+    for model in sorted(df["model"].unique()):
+        mdf = df[df["model"] == model]
+        rates = []
+        counts, nobs_list = [], []
+        for ov in ["low", "mid", "high"]:
+            sub = mdf[mdf["oversight"] == ov]
+            n_dec = sub["is_deceptive_overall"].sum()
+            n_tot = len(sub)
+            rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+            rates.append(rate)
+            counts.append(n_dec)
+            nobs_list.append(n_tot)
+            ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(
+                n_dec, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson"
+            )
+
+        z_trend, p_trend = cochran_armitage(counts, nobs_list)
+        model_short = model.split("/")[-1] if "/" in model else model
+        print(
+            f"  {model_short:35s}  {rates[0]:7.1f}%  {rates[1]:7.1f}%  {rates[2]:7.1f}%  z={z_trend:+.2f} {sig(p_trend)}"
+        )
+
+    section("4. PAIRWISE COMPARISONS (Bonferroni-corrected)")
+
+    pairs = list(combinations(["low", "mid", "high"], 2))
+    n_comp = len(pairs)
+    adj_alpha = SIGNIFICANCE_LEVEL / n_comp
+
+    for o1, o2 in pairs:
+        sub = df[df["oversight"].isin([o1, o2])]
+        ct_pair = pd.crosstab(sub["oversight"], sub["is_deceptive_overall"])
+        ct_pair = ct_pair.loc[[o1, o2]]
+        chi2_p, p_val, dof, _ = chi2_contingency(ct_pair.values)
+        _, fisher_p = fisher_exact(ct_pair.values)
+        or_val, or_ci_low, or_ci_high = odds_ratio_ci(ct_pair.values)
+        sig_mark = "SIG" if p_val < adj_alpha else "n.s."
+        print(
+            f"  {o1} vs {o2}: χ²(1) = {chi2_p:.3f}, Fisher {fmt_p(fisher_p)}, OR = {or_val:.2f} [{or_ci_low:.2f}, {or_ci_high:.2f}] [{sig_mark}]"
+        )
+
+    section("5. GLASSBOX REASONING BY OVERSIGHT")
+
+    print("  Compliant reasoning rates by oversight:")
+    for ov in ["low", "mid", "high"]:
+        sub = df[df["oversight"] == ov]
+        n_comp = sub["is_compliant_gb"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_comp / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_comp, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        print(
+            f"    {ov}: {n_comp}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    section("6. STRATEGIC SOPHISTICATION")
+
+    print("  Strategic reasoning rates by oversight:")
+    for ov in ["low", "mid", "high"]:
+        sub = df[df["oversight"] == ov]
+        n_strat = sub["is_strategic"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_strat / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(
+            n_strat, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson"
+        )
+        print(
+            f"    {ov}: {n_strat}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    section("7. LOGISTIC REGRESSION: deception ~ oversight")
+
+    model_df = df.copy()
+    model_df["oversight_num"] = model_df["oversight"].map(
+        {"low": 0, "mid": 1, "high": 2}
+    )
+    model_df["model_code"] = pd.Categorical(model_df["model"]).codes
+
+    X = model_df[["oversight_num", "model_code"]]
+    X = sm.add_constant(X)
+    y = model_df["is_deceptive_overall"]
+
+    try:
+        logit = sm.Logit(y, X).fit(disp=0)
+        print(logit.summary2().tables[1].to_string())
+        print(f"\n  Pseudo R² = {logit.prsquared:.4f}, AIC = {logit.aic:.1f}")
+
+        print("\n  Odds ratios (exponentiated coefficients):")
+        for name, coef, pval in zip(X.columns, logit.params, logit.pvalues):
+            if name == "const":
+                continue
+            or_val = np.exp(coef)
+            ci = logit.conf_int().loc[name]
+            or_ci = (np.exp(ci[0]), np.exp(ci[1]))
+            print(
+                f"    {name:20s}  OR = {or_val:.3f}  95% CI: [{or_ci[0]:.3f}, {or_ci[1]:.3f}]  {sig(pval)}"
+            )
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"  Logistic regression failed: {e}")
+
+    section("ANALYSIS COMPLETE")
+    print(f"  Total runs: {len(df)}")
+    print(f"  Models: {sorted(df['model'].unique())}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/scripts/analyze_study2.py b/scripts/analyze_study2.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b51534d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/analyze_study2.py
@@ -0,0 +1,306 @@
+# /// script
+# requires-python = ">=3.10"
+# dependencies = [
+#     "pandas",
+#     "numpy",
+#     "scipy",
+#     "statsmodels",
+# ]
+# ///
+"""
+Statistical Analysis of Study 2: Framing Effect
+=============================================
+Tests whether providing a moral rationalization increases deception.
+
+Design: 3 models × 3 goal_types × 1 scenario × 1 oversight level (mid) × n=30
+Total: 270 runs
+
+Usage:
+    uv run python scripts/analyze_study2.py logs/v2_study2/study2_results.csv
+"""
+
+import sys
+import warnings
+from itertools import combinations
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from scipy import stats
+from scipy.stats import chi2_contingency, fisher_exact, chi2
+from statsmodels.stats.contingency_tables import StratifiedTable
+from statsmodels.stats.proportion import proportion_confint
+import statsmodels.api as sm
+
+warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=FutureWarning)
+
+SIGNIFICANCE_LEVEL = 0.05
+
+DECEPTIVE_BB = {"DECEPTIVE_FRAMING", "OMITTED_CRITICAL", "FABRICATED"}
+COMPLIANT_GB = {"COMPLIANT_DECEPTION"}
+
+
+def load_data(path: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    df = pd.read_csv(path)
+    df["is_deceptive_bb"] = df["blackbox_category"].isin(DECEPTIVE_BB).astype(int)
+    df["is_compliant_gb"] = df["glassbox_category"].isin(COMPLIANT_GB).astype(int)
+    df["is_strategic"] = (df["glassbox_sophistication"] == "STRATEGIC").astype(int)
+    df["is_deceptive_overall"] = (
+        (df["is_deceptive_bb"] == 1) | (df["is_compliant_gb"] == 1)
+    ).astype(int)
+
+    # Extract goal_type from run_id: model/scenario/goal_type/oversight/timestamp
+    df["goal_type"] = df["run_id"].apply(lambda x: x.split("/")[2])
+    return df
+
+
+def odds_ratio_ci(table_2x2, alpha=0.05):
+    a, b, c, d = table_2x2[0, 0], table_2x2[0, 1], table_2x2[1, 0], table_2x2[1, 1]
+    if 0 in (a, b, c, d):
+        a, b, c, d = a + 0.5, b + 0.5, c + 0.5, d + 0.5
+    or_val = (a * d) / (b * c)
+    log_or = np.log(or_val)
+    se_log_or = np.sqrt(1 / a + 1 / b + 1 / c + 1 / d)
+    z = stats.norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2)
+    return or_val, np.exp(log_or - z * se_log_or), np.exp(log_or + z * se_log_or)
+
+
+def cramers_v(table):
+    chi2_val = chi2_contingency(table)[0]
+    n = table.sum()
+    min_dim = min(table.shape) - 1
+    if min_dim == 0 or n == 0:
+        return 0.0
+    return np.sqrt(chi2_val / (n * min_dim))
+
+
+def sig(p):
+    if p < 0.001:
+        return "***"
+    elif p < 0.01:
+        return "**"
+    elif p < 0.05:
+        return "*"
+    return "n.s."
+
+
+def fmt_p(p):
+    return f"p < .001" if p < 0.001 else f"p = {p:.4f}"
+
+
+def section(title):
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 70}")
+    print(f"  {title}")
+    print(f"{'=' * 70}\n")
+
+
+def subsection(title):
+    print(f"\n  --- {title} ---\n")
+
+
+def effect_size(v):
+    if v < 0.1:
+        return "negligible"
+    elif v < 0.3:
+        return "small"
+    elif v < 0.5:
+        return "medium"
+    return "large"
+
+
+def main():
+    if len(sys.argv) < 2:
+        path = "logs/v2_study2/study2_results.csv"
+    else:
+        path = sys.argv[1]
+
+    df = load_data(path)
+    print(f"Study 2: Framing Effect Analysis")
+    print(f"Loaded {len(df)} runs")
+    print(f"Models: {sorted(df['model'].unique())}")
+    print(f"Goal types: {sorted(df['goal_type'].unique())}")
+
+    section("1. GOAL TYPE EFFECT (Overall)")
+
+    print("  Deception rates by goal type:")
+    for gt in ["bare", "moral", "self_serving"]:
+        sub = df[df["goal_type"] == gt]
+        n_dec = sub["is_deceptive_overall"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_dec, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        print(
+            f"    {gt}: {n_dec}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    ct = pd.crosstab(df["goal_type"], df["is_deceptive_overall"])
+    ct = ct.loc[["bare", "moral", "self_serving"]]
+    chi2_val, p_val, dof, expected = chi2_contingency(ct.values)
+    v = cramers_v(ct.values)
+    print(
+        f"\n  Chi-squared test: χ²({dof}) = {chi2_val:.3f}, {fmt_p(p_val)} {sig(p_val)}"
+    )
+    print(f"  Cramér's V = {v:.3f} ({effect_size(v)})")
+
+    section("2. BY GOAL TYPE (Blackbox Output)")
+
+    print("  Blackbox deception rates:")
+    for gt in ["bare", "moral", "self_serving"]:
+        sub = df[df["goal_type"] == gt]
+        n_dec = sub["is_deceptive_bb"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_dec, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        print(
+            f"    {gt}: {n_dec}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    section("3. BY GOAL TYPE (Glassbox Reasoning)")
+
+    print("  Compliant reasoning rates:")
+    for gt in ["bare", "moral", "self_serving"]:
+        sub = df[df["goal_type"] == gt]
+        n_comp = sub["is_compliant_gb"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(sub)
+        rate = n_comp / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_comp, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        print(
+            f"    {gt}: {n_comp}/{n_tot} ({rate:.1f}%)  95% CI: [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    section("4. PAIRWISE COMPARISONS (Bonferroni-corrected)")
+
+    pairs = list(combinations(["bare", "moral", "self_serving"], 2))
+    n_comp = len(pairs)
+    adj_alpha = SIGNIFICANCE_LEVEL / n_comp
+
+    for g1, g2 in pairs:
+        sub = df[df["goal_type"].isin([g1, g2])]
+        ct_pair = pd.crosstab(sub["goal_type"], sub["is_deceptive_overall"])
+        ct_pair = ct_pair.loc[[g1, g2]]
+        chi2_p, p_val, dof, _ = chi2_contingency(ct_pair.values)
+        _, fisher_p = fisher_exact(ct_pair.values)
+        or_val, or_ci_low, or_ci_high = odds_ratio_ci(ct_pair.values)
+        sig_mark = "SIG" if p_val < adj_alpha else "n.s."
+        print(
+            f"  {g1} vs {g2}: χ²(1) = {chi2_p:.3f}, Fisher {fmt_p(fisher_p)}, OR = {or_val:.2f} [{or_ci_low:.2f}, {or_ci_high:.2f}] [{sig_mark}]"
+        )
+
+    section("5. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN GOAL TYPE SENSITIVITY")
+
+    print(
+        f"  {'Model':35s}  {'Bare':>8s}  {'Moral':>8s}  {'SelfServ':>8s}  {'Trend':>10s}"
+    )
+    print(f"  {'-' * 35}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 10}")
+
+    for model in sorted(df["model"].unique()):
+        mdf = df[df["model"] == model]
+        rates = []
+        counts_list, nobs_list = [], []
+        for gt in ["bare", "moral", "self_serving"]:
+            sub = mdf[mdf["goal_type"] == gt]
+            n_dec = sub["is_deceptive_overall"].sum()
+            n_tot = len(sub)
+            rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+            rates.append(rate)
+            counts_list.append(n_dec)
+            nobs_list.append(n_tot)
+
+        # Chi-squared test for this model's goal type effect
+        sub_all = mdf
+        ct_model = pd.crosstab(sub_all["goal_type"], sub_all["is_deceptive_overall"])
+        chi2_val, p_val, dof, _ = chi2_contingency(ct_model.values)
+
+        model_short = model.split("/")[-1] if "/" in model else model
+        sig_mark = sig(p_val)
+        print(
+            f"  {model_short:35s}  {rates[0]:7.1f}%  {rates[1]:7.1f}%  {rates[2]:7.1f}%  χ²={chi2_val:.1f} {sig_mark}"
+        )
+
+    section("6. MODEL MAIN EFFECTS")
+
+    print(f"  {'Model':35s}  {'Deceptive':>10s}  {'Rate':>8s}  95% CI")
+    print(f"  {'-' * 35}  {'-' * 10}  {'-' * 8}  {'-' * 15}")
+
+    for model in sorted(df["model"].unique()):
+        mdf = df[df["model"] == model]
+        n_dec = mdf["is_deceptive_overall"].sum()
+        n_tot = len(mdf)
+        rate = n_dec / n_tot * 100
+        ci_low, ci_high = proportion_confint(n_dec, n_tot, alpha=0.05, method="wilson")
+        model_short = model.split("/")[-1] if "/" in model else model
+        print(
+            f"  {model_short:35s}  {n_dec:>10d}  {rate:>7.1f}%  [{ci_low * 100:.1f}%, {ci_high * 100:.1f}%]"
+        )
+
+    ct_model = pd.crosstab(df["model"], df["is_deceptive_overall"])
+    chi2_val, p_val, dof, expected = chi2_contingency(ct_model.values)
+    v = cramers_v(ct_model.values)
+    print(
+        f"\n  Chi-squared test: χ²({dof}) = {chi2_val:.3f}, {fmt_p(p_val)} {sig(p_val)}"
+    )
+    print(f"  Cramér's V = {v:.3f} ({effect_size(v)})")
+
+    section("7. RATIONALIZATION HYPOTHESIS TEST")
+
+    print(
+        "  Hypothesis: moral/self_serving hidden goals produce MORE deception than bare."
+    )
+    print()
+
+    # Moral vs Bare
+    sub_mb = df[df["goal_type"].isin(["moral", "bare"])]
+    ct_mb = pd.crosstab(sub_mb["goal_type"], sub_mb["is_deceptive_overall"])
+    ct_mb = ct_mb.loc[["bare", "moral"]]
+    or_val, or_low, or_high = odds_ratio_ci(ct_mb.values)
+    _, fisher_p = fisher_exact(ct_mb.values)
+    print(
+        f"  moral vs bare: OR = {or_val:.2f} [{or_low:.2f}, {or_high:.2f}], Fisher {fmt_p(fisher_p)} {sig(fisher_p)}"
+    )
+
+    # Self_serving vs Bare
+    sub_sb = df[df["goal_type"].isin(["self_serving", "bare"])]
+    ct_sb = pd.crosstab(sub_sb["goal_type"], sub_sb["is_deceptive_overall"])
+    ct_sb = ct_sb.loc[["bare", "self_serving"]]
+    or_val, or_low, or_high = odds_ratio_ci(ct_sb.values)
+    _, fisher_p = fisher_exact(ct_sb.values)
+    print(
+        f"  self_serving vs bare: OR = {or_val:.2f} [{or_low:.2f}, {or_high:.2f}], Fisher {fmt_p(fisher_p)} {sig(fisher_p)}"
+    )
+
+    section("8. LOGISTIC REGRESSION: deception ~ goal_type + model")
+
+    model_df = df.copy()
+    model_df["bare_code"] = (model_df["goal_type"] == "bare").astype(int)
+    model_df["moral_code"] = (model_df["goal_type"] == "moral").astype(int)
+    model_df["model_code"] = pd.Categorical(model_df["model"]).codes
+
+    X = model_df[["bare_code", "moral_code", "model_code"]]
+    X = sm.add_constant(X)
+    y = model_df["is_deceptive_overall"]
+
+    try:
+        logit = sm.Logit(y, X).fit(disp=0)
+        print(logit.summary2().tables[1].to_string())
+        print(f"\n  Pseudo R² = {logit.prsquared:.4f}, AIC = {logit.aic:.1f}")
+
+        print("\n  Odds ratios (exponentiated coefficients):")
+        for name, coef, pval in zip(X.columns, logit.params, logit.pvalues):
+            if name == "const":
+                continue
+            or_val = np.exp(coef)
+            ci = logit.conf_int().loc[name]
+            or_ci = (np.exp(ci[0]), np.exp(ci[1]))
+            print(
+                f"    {name:20s}  OR = {or_val:.3f}  95% CI: [{or_ci[0]:.3f}, {or_ci[1]:.3f}]  {sig(pval)}"
+            )
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"  Logistic regression failed: {e}")
+
+    section("ANALYSIS COMPLETE")
+    print(f"  Total runs: {len(df)}")
+    print(f"  Models: {sorted(df['model'].unique())}")
+    print(f"  Goal types: {sorted(df['goal_type'].unique())}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()