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CPS RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS
Reviewed source files: /data/case_file_A.md through /data/case_file_F.md
Scoring model (0–100 total risk):
- Evidence of current harm: 0–30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 0–25
- Home environment instability: 0–20
- Child vulnerability factors: 0–15
- Family support system limitations: 0–10
Risk bands:
- 0–24 = Low
- 25–49 = Moderate
- 50–74 = High
- 75–100 = Critical
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CASE FILE A (2025-04-1847)
Total Risk Score: 34/100 (Moderate)
Factor scoring:
- Evidence of current harm: 15/30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 8/25
- Home environment instability: 4/20
- Child vulnerability factors: 3/15
- Family support limitations: 4/10
Justification:
- Single visible bruise + child statement indicating caregiver anger supports moderate current-harm concern.
- No prior CPS history; caregivers appear generally functional (stable employment, routine child care/school functioning).
- Home and income stability are protective.
- Child (age 7) is developmentally typical with strong school connection.
- Some support present (local grandmother), but full support depth is not yet confirmed.
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CASE FILE B (2025-04-1893)
Total Risk Score: 53/100 (High)
Factor scoring:
- Evidence of current harm: 13/30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 13/25
- Home environment instability: 13/20
- Child vulnerability factors: 8/15
- Family support limitations: 6/10
Justification:
- Current harm concern is moderate but based on anonymous third-party observation.
- Repeated reports and prior supervision concerns elevate caregiver-capacity risk despite active service engagement.
- Housing insecurity (rent arrears), low income, and recent employment changes increase instability.
- Child vulnerability is moderate (young age, attendance and academic concerns).
- Family is connected to formal services, but natural support network appears limited.
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CASE FILE C (2025-04-1901)
Total Risk Score: 47/100 (Moderate)
Factor scoring:
- Evidence of current harm: 14/30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 11/25
- Home environment instability: 11/20
- Child vulnerability factors: 4/15
- Family support limitations: 7/10
Justification:
- Confirmed bruise with child disclosure of excessive grabbing indicates moderate harm concern.
- Caregiver functioning is mixed: stable employment and supervision routines, but significant single-parent stress load.
- Financial strain and constrained housing (1-bedroom) contribute to moderate environmental risk.
- Child vulnerability is relatively low (age 7, school success, no developmental red flags).
- Limited identified support system (no co-parent or extended family documented) raises stress-related risk.
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CASE FILE D (2025-04-1915)
Total Risk Score: 54/100 (High)
Factor scoring:
- Evidence of current harm: 19/30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 16/25
- Home environment instability: 7/20
- Child vulnerability factors: 9/15
- Family support limitations: 3/10
Justification:
- Current injury is concerning in context of prior substantiated physical abuse and similar discipline pattern.
- Prior successful treatment is protective, but possible regression under stress raises caregiver-capacity concern.
- Home stability is generally adequate (housing, employment, medical access).
- Child is moderately vulnerable due to age and escalating behavioral/emotional regulation issues.
- Support systems are comparatively strong (extended family, prior therapist, school counselor).
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CASE FILE E (2025-04-1922)
Total Risk Score: 90/100 (Critical)
Factor scoring:
- Evidence of current harm: 30/30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 23/25
- Home environment instability: 15/20
- Child vulnerability factors: 14/15
- Family support limitations: 8/10
Justification:
- Severe and immediate harm indicators: multiple injuries of varying ages, spiral fracture, and mechanism mismatch.
- Very high caregiver-capacity concern due inconsistent explanation, defensiveness, and indicators of repeated trauma.
- Home appears materially stable but safety in caregiving environment is highly compromised.
- Child vulnerability is high (young age, fear/inhibition, school-reported withdrawal).
- Limited known support and family isolation increase risk severity.
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CASE FILE F (2025-04-1928)
Total Risk Score: 28/100 (Moderate)
Factor scoring:
- Evidence of current harm: 6/30
- Caregiver capacity concerns: 6/25
- Home environment instability: 8/20
- Child vulnerability factors: 5/15
- Family support limitations: 3/10
Justification:
- Injury is minor and plausibly linked to protective intervention (preventing child from running into traffic).
- Caregiver has strong documented improvement, high service compliance, and insight/remorse.
- Household remains economically fragile but has improved supervision, food stability, and active supports.
- Children are young, but current collateral reports show positive functioning.
- Support network (aunt + intensive service team + therapist) is active and protective.
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Overall priority ranking (highest to lowest risk):
1) Case E (90 - Critical)
2) Case D (54 - High)
3) Case B (53 - High)
4) Case C (47 - Moderate)
5) Case A (34 - Moderate)
6) Case F (28 - Moderate)
Note: Scores are based on currently available intake/collateral information and should be updated after home visits, medical findings, and forensic interviews as applicable.
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